Analyzing the driving factors behind the change of the power sector's aggregate carbon intensity in Colombia 1990-2017

Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) analysis is a classical statistical method frequently used to decompose macroeconomic times-series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or equivalent carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e). The LMDI method decomposes the change in a given variable of interest into several driving or explaining factors. Recently, the LMDI method has aroused a renewed inter- est in energy researchers as a useful tool to explain the reasons behind the changes in the aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) of the electricity. The ACI of electricity is a critical performance index needed to track the transition from fossil-based to decarbonized economies in developing countries. It relates the total carbon dioxide emissions (in gCO2) and the total power generation output (in kWh) during a given period. We can find some recent contributions about ACI decomposition using LMDI tech- niques in many countries and regions. Nevertheless, Colombia lacks specific studies about its ACI evolution. To fill the research gap, this thesis applies the LMDI decomposition analysis to identify factors that explain the change of ACI in Colombia. The research was carried out from 1990 to 2017. Six sub-periods were studied in detail: 1990-1992, 1992-1999, 1999-2007, 2007-2011, 2001-2014, and 2014-2017. Results show that since 1992 -when profound market and institutional reforms were carried out- the ACI drastically dropped and stabilized due to both structural (dispatch of large hydro plants) and intensity reasons (improved efficiency and a more clean energy mix). However, since 2011, ACI shows a significative change of trend. The structural effect is strongly connected with the increase of fossil-based generation to attend increasing load demands and stagnation of large-hydro energy output

• Autores: Rojas Lozano, Daniela del Pilar
• Tipo de recurso: Trabajo de grado de pregrado
• Fecha de publicación: 2019
• Institución: Universidad de los Andes
• Repositorio: Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/44649
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/1992/44649
• Palabra clave: Producción de energía eléctrica; Política energética; Comercio de derechos de emisión; Ingeniería
• Rights: openAccess
• License: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf