Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border
Códigos JEL.: F17, F51
- Autores:
-
Malkún Montoya, Samuel
- Tipo de recurso:
- Work document
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2025
- Institución:
- Universidad de los Andes
- Repositorio:
- Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/75412
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/1992/75412
- Palabra clave:
- Economic diplomacy
Trade
Economía
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdf
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
| title |
Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border Economic diplomacy Trade Economía |
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
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Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan Border |
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Malkún Montoya, Samuel |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Malkún Montoya, Samuel |
| dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv |
Economic diplomacy Trade |
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Economic diplomacy Trade Economía |
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Economía |
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Códigos JEL.: F17, F51 |
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2025 |
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44 páginas |
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Universidad de los Andes |
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Facultad de Economía |
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Malkún Montoya, Samuel2025-01-14T21:05:17Z2025-01-14T21:05:17Z2025-011657-7191https://hdl.handle.net/1992/75412Códigos JEL.: F17, F51In just over ten years trade between Colombia and Venezuela vanished due to diplomatic tensions between both nations and the economic crisis in Venezuela. This study examines the impact of political disruptions, particularly stemming from Colombia's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States in 2009, on Colombian exports to Venezuela. Employing a gravity model incorporating time-varying and country-pair fixed effects, this research forecasts trade flows and compares them to the observed export data. While predicted exports mirror the observed data during most of the series, since 2010 both trends have deviated significantly. Between 2010 and 2015 losses amounted to $6bn, as only 65% of predicted trade took place. In contrast, Colombian exports to other partners in the region maintained an upward trajectory.En poco más de diez años, el comercio entre Colombia y Venezuela desapareció debido a las tensiones diplomáticas entre ambas naciones y a la crisis económica en Venezuela. Esta investigación examina el impacto de las interrupciones políticas, en particular las derivadas del Acuerdo de Cooperación en Defensa entre Colombia y Estados Unidos en 2009, sobre las exportaciones colombianas hacia Venezuela. Utilizando un modelo gravitacional que incorpora efectos fijos variables en el tiempo y específicos para cada par de países, se proyecta los flujos comerciales y se compara con los datos observados de exportaciones. Aunque las exportaciones previstas reflejan los datos observados durante la mayor parte de la serie, desde 2010 ambas tendencias divergieron significativamente. Entre 2010 y 2015, las pérdidas ascendieron a 6.000 millones de dólares y solo el 65 % del comercio previsto se llevó a cabo. En contraste, las exportaciones colombianas hacia otros socios en la región mantuvieron una trayectoria ascendente.44 páginasapplication/pdfengUniversidad de los AndesFacultad de EconomíaDocumentos CEDE; 2025-02https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/021297.htmlhttps://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/static/pdf/aceptacion_uso_es.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Partners to Rivals: The Interruption to Trade in the Colombian – Venezuelan BorderDocumento de trabajoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Texthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/WPEconomic diplomacyTradeEconomíaPublicationORIGINALdcede2025-02.pdfdcede2025-02.pdfapplication/pdf13111516https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/c2832033-c03e-49bf-b523-bd37acc37de9/downloadd0e0a7a2c19101b75e72e84159fcd27fMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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