Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución

La evidencia científica sugiere que el cambio climático antropogénico tiene el potencial de cambiar la frecuencia y la magnitud de los eventos de precipitación al intensificar el ciclo hidrológico, en particular las precipitaciones extremas y la ocurrencia de eventos secos en diferentes regiones del...

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Autores:: Leandro Arévalo, Manuel Felipe

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Fecha de publicación:: 2025

Institución:: Universidad de Antioquia

Repositorio:: Repositorio UdeA

Idioma:: spa

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network_acronym_str	UDEA2
network_name_str	Repositorio UdeA
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
title	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
spellingShingle	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución Climate change Ciclo hidrológico Hydrologic cycle Precipitación atmósferica - medición Precipitation (Meteorology)- Measurement Índices de extremos de precipitación Cambio climático http://vocabularies.unesco.org/thesaurus/concept4559 ODS 13: Acción por el Clima. Adoptar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
title_short	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
title_full	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
title_fullStr	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
title_full_unstemmed	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
title_sort	Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Leandro Arévalo, Manuel Felipe
dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv	Arias Gómez, Paola Andrea Salazar Villegas, Juan Fernando
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv	Leandro Arévalo, Manuel Felipe
dc.contributor.researchgroup.none.fl_str_mv	Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA)
dc.contributor.jury.none.fl_str_mv	Carmona Duque, Alejandra María Rojo Hernández, Julián David
dc.subject.unesco.none.fl_str_mv	Climate change
topic	Climate change Ciclo hidrológico Hydrologic cycle Precipitación atmósferica - medición Precipitation (Meteorology)- Measurement Índices de extremos de precipitación Cambio climático http://vocabularies.unesco.org/thesaurus/concept4559 ODS 13: Acción por el Clima. Adoptar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
dc.subject.lemb.none.fl_str_mv	Ciclo hidrológico Hydrologic cycle Precipitación atmósferica - medición Precipitation (Meteorology)- Measurement
dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv	Índices de extremos de precipitación
dc.subject.unescouri.none.fl_str_mv	Cambio climático http://vocabularies.unesco.org/thesaurus/concept4559
dc.subject.ods.none.fl_str_mv	ODS 13: Acción por el Clima. Adoptar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
description	La evidencia científica sugiere que el cambio climático antropogénico tiene el potencial de cambiar la frecuencia y la magnitud de los eventos de precipitación al intensificar el ciclo hidrológico, en particular las precipitaciones extremas y la ocurrencia de eventos secos en diferentes regiones del mundo. El objetivo de este Trabajo de Investigación es identificar una posible intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica Tropical a partir de diferentes bases de datos de referencia. Además, plantea evaluar el desempeño de los modelos de circulación general contenidos en la Sexta Fase del Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados (CMIP6 por sus iniciales en inglés) en la simulación de extremos de precipitación, así como su intensificación y tendencias en la región de estudio. Los datos de referencia se obtuvieron a partir de cinco productos de precipitación de diferentes características (CHIRPS-v2.0, GPM, PERSIANN-CDR, CPC y HadEX3) para las últimas décadas, y las simulaciones se obtuvieron de un total de 12 modelos climáticos globales (ESM) y 6 modelos globales de alta resolución (HighResMIP). Las regiones de interés son el noroeste (NWS), el norte (NSA) y el noreste (NES) de Suramérica, así como la región del Monzón de Suramérica (SAM), las cuales han sido propuestas para el análisis de evidencia científica regional del sexto informe de evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC por sus iniciales en inglés). Las tendencias de las series de tiempo de los índices considerados fueron estimadas mediante las pruebas no paramétricas de Mann-Kendall y Sen Slope. Para la evaluación y comparación de los modelos con las observaciones, se calcularon sus sesgos y tendencias y se realizó un análisis de desempeño mediante diagramas de Taylor, para cada modelo y para el promedio multimodelo. Finalmente, se realizó un estudio de detección y atribución de la tendencia de cambio identificada en las observaciones de CHIRPS, utilizando el método Optimal Fingerprinting y los experimentos de forzamientos externos contenidos en el Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos de Detección y Atribución (DAMIP por sus iniciales en inglés). Estos forzamientos corresponden a un experimento de variabilidad natural, un experimento de gases de efecto invernadero antropogénicos y un experimento de aerosoles antropogénicos, con el objetivo de considerar la contribución de forzamientos naturales y antropogénicos. Nuestros resultados muestran evidencia de una intensificación del ciclo hidrológico durante las últimas tres décadas en las regiones de estudio, según los diferentes datos de referencia. Entre las señales más claras se identifican una intensificación de los eventos húmedos en la zona norte de NWS, particularmente el occidente y la región Andina de Colombia, y una intensificación de los eventos secos en las regiones SAM y NES. En general, los modelos CMIP6 y HighResMIP tienen dificultades para simular la variabilidad espacial y temporal de los extremos de precipitación tanto húmedos como secos, y solamente logran identificar la señal de cambio de los extremos secos en las regiones SAM y NES. Los resultados del estudio de detección y atribución no permitieron encontrar una señal de un forzamiento antropogénico en los cambios observados en las regiones de estudio para los índices de extremos de precipitación.
publishDate	2025
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2025-06-24T15:42:17Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv	Trabajo de grado - Maestría
dc.type.redcol.none.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TM
dc.type.content.none.fl_str_mv	Text
dc.type.coarversion.none.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce
dc.type.driver.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/draft
status_str	draft
dc.identifier.citation.none.fl_str_mv	Leandro Arévalo, M. F. (2025). Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución [Tesis de maestría]. Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia.
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv	https://hdl.handle.net/10495/46504
identifier_str_mv	Leandro Arévalo, M. F. (2025). Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución [Tesis de maestría]. Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia.
url	https://hdl.handle.net/10495/46504
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv	spa
language	spa
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spelling	Arias Gómez, Paola AndreaSalazar Villegas, Juan FernandoLeandro Arévalo, Manuel FelipeGrupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA)Carmona Duque, Alejandra MaríaRojo Hernández, Julián David2025-06-24T15:42:17Z2025Leandro Arévalo, M. F. (2025). Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución [Tesis de maestría]. Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia.https://hdl.handle.net/10495/46504La evidencia científica sugiere que el cambio climático antropogénico tiene el potencial de cambiar la frecuencia y la magnitud de los eventos de precipitación al intensificar el ciclo hidrológico, en particular las precipitaciones extremas y la ocurrencia de eventos secos en diferentes regiones del mundo. El objetivo de este Trabajo de Investigación es identificar una posible intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica Tropical a partir de diferentes bases de datos de referencia. Además, plantea evaluar el desempeño de los modelos de circulación general contenidos en la Sexta Fase del Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados (CMIP6 por sus iniciales en inglés) en la simulación de extremos de precipitación, así como su intensificación y tendencias en la región de estudio. Los datos de referencia se obtuvieron a partir de cinco productos de precipitación de diferentes características (CHIRPS-v2.0, GPM, PERSIANN-CDR, CPC y HadEX3) para las últimas décadas, y las simulaciones se obtuvieron de un total de 12 modelos climáticos globales (ESM) y 6 modelos globales de alta resolución (HighResMIP). Las regiones de interés son el noroeste (NWS), el norte (NSA) y el noreste (NES) de Suramérica, así como la región del Monzón de Suramérica (SAM), las cuales han sido propuestas para el análisis de evidencia científica regional del sexto informe de evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC por sus iniciales en inglés). Las tendencias de las series de tiempo de los índices considerados fueron estimadas mediante las pruebas no paramétricas de Mann-Kendall y Sen Slope. Para la evaluación y comparación de los modelos con las observaciones, se calcularon sus sesgos y tendencias y se realizó un análisis de desempeño mediante diagramas de Taylor, para cada modelo y para el promedio multimodelo. Finalmente, se realizó un estudio de detección y atribución de la tendencia de cambio identificada en las observaciones de CHIRPS, utilizando el método Optimal Fingerprinting y los experimentos de forzamientos externos contenidos en el Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos de Detección y Atribución (DAMIP por sus iniciales en inglés). Estos forzamientos corresponden a un experimento de variabilidad natural, un experimento de gases de efecto invernadero antropogénicos y un experimento de aerosoles antropogénicos, con el objetivo de considerar la contribución de forzamientos naturales y antropogénicos. Nuestros resultados muestran evidencia de una intensificación del ciclo hidrológico durante las últimas tres décadas en las regiones de estudio, según los diferentes datos de referencia. Entre las señales más claras se identifican una intensificación de los eventos húmedos en la zona norte de NWS, particularmente el occidente y la región Andina de Colombia, y una intensificación de los eventos secos en las regiones SAM y NES. En general, los modelos CMIP6 y HighResMIP tienen dificultades para simular la variabilidad espacial y temporal de los extremos de precipitación tanto húmedos como secos, y solamente logran identificar la señal de cambio de los extremos secos en las regiones SAM y NES. Los resultados del estudio de detección y atribución no permitieron encontrar una señal de un forzamiento antropogénico en los cambios observados en las regiones de estudio para los índices de extremos de precipitación.COL0008619MaestríaMagíster en Ingeniería Ambiental114 páginasapplication/pdfspaUniversidad de AntioquiaMaestría en Ingeniería AmbientalMedellín, ColombiaFacultad de IngenieríaCampus Medellín - Ciudad Universitariahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Internationalhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribuciónTrabajo de grado - Maestríahttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/TMTexthttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/draftAbdelmoaty, H. M., Papalexiou, S. M., Rajulapati, C. R., & AghaKouchak, A. (2021). 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

Intensificación del ciclo hidrológico en Suramérica tropical: detección y atribución

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