Evaluación de políticas de producción de hidrógeno verde en Colombia utilizando Dinámica de Sistemas

The high production costs represent a significant challenge for the viability of green hydrogen in Colombia. To address this issue, a System Dynamics model was developed to evaluate various government policies aimed at promoting this industry. This study evaluated four policies, each of them with current fiscal incentives, to boost green hydrogen production in Colombia: (1) a 35% subsidy on electricity costs with gradual reduction, (2) an equivalent subsidy on capital costs, (3) a 20-year contract for difference (CFD) that guarantees a 12% return on investment (ROI), and (4) a similar 10-year CFD. The baseline scenario, which considers current government policies, suggests that these are insufficient to reach the production target set by Colombia’s Green Hydrogen Roadmap before 2040, although from that year onwards, these policies become sufficient to meet the goal. The results show that only the CFDs significantly improve upon the baseline scenario; in terms of levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), the 10- and 20-year CFDs achieved values of 2.32 USD/kg in 2030 and 1.09 USD/kg in 2050, while the baseline scenario and subsidy policies reached around 2.86 USD/kg in 2030 and 1.42 USD/kg in 2050. In terms of production, only the 20-year CFD fully matched the government target in all years of the simulation, being the only policy to meet the goal without interruption; however, the model results suggest that the 10-year CFD is the most attractive policy, as it achieves favorable results in terms of production, ROI, installed capacity, and LCOH, while requiring a lower government intervention by the government than the 20-year CFD, with a difference in results that is not significant.

• Autores: Osorio Gutiérrez, Carmenza
• Fecha de publicación: 2025
• Institución: Universidad de Antioquia
• Repositorio: Repositorio UdeA
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:bibliotecadigital.udea.edu.co:10495/47259
• Acceso en línea: https://hdl.handle.net/10495/47259
• Palabra clave: Hydrogen industry; Industria del hidrógeno; Dynamics; Política pública; Política energética; Energy policy; Hydrogen production; http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85063426; http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85040316; ODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminante. Garantizar el acceso a una energía asequible, fiable, sostenible y moderna para todos
• Rights: openAccess
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/