Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas

Scenario Planning, actualmente, es un recurso clave en la gestión de incertidumbre y toma de decisiones. Desde el principio, se ha mirado como una herramienta dinámica, que se adapta a diferentes corrientes de pensamiento, encontrando aplicación en varios campos de la investigación y contextos (Cord...

Full description

Autores:: Chalapud Narváez, Eduardo David
Parodi Camaño, Tobías Alfonso
Mercado Hoyos, Luis Enrique

Tipo de recurso:: Book

Fecha de publicación:: 2025

Institución:: Universidad de Córdoba

Repositorio:: Repositorio Institucional Unicórdoba

Idioma:: spa

id	UCORDOBA2_ae5a77b0b22454b41a06dcf6dfa8787b
oai_identifier_str	oai:repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co:ucordoba/9126
network_acronym_str	UCORDOBA2
network_name_str	Repositorio Institucional Unicórdoba
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
title	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
spellingShingle	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas Planificación estratégica
title_short	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
title_full	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
title_fullStr	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
title_full_unstemmed	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
title_sort	Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Chalapud Narváez, Eduardo David Parodi Camaño, Tobías Alfonso Mercado Hoyos, Luis Enrique
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv	Chalapud Narváez, Eduardo David Parodi Camaño, Tobías Alfonso Mercado Hoyos, Luis Enrique
dc.subject.lcsh.none.fl_str_mv	Planificación estratégica
topic	Planificación estratégica
description	Scenario Planning, actualmente, es un recurso clave en la gestión de incertidumbre y toma de decisiones. Desde el principio, se ha mirado como una herramienta dinámica, que se adapta a diferentes corrientes de pensamiento, encontrando aplicación en varios campos de la investigación y contextos (Cordova & Rouwette, 2023). De acuerdo con Araújo & Casimiro (2020), los escenarios se presentan como una herramienta estratégica para proyectar a largo plazo la visión de una organización o sociedad, especialmente en un entorno caracterizado por una alta incertidumbre. Estos escenarios se conciben como un conjunto estructurado de formas de pensamiento que exploran diversos futuros alternativos, permitiendo así que las decisiones se articulen y desarrollen narrativas sobre el curso del mundo a largo plazo (Schwartz, 1996).
publishDate	2025
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2025-04-08T21:02:08Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2025-04-08T21:02:08Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv	2025-04-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv	Libro
dc.type.driver.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/book
dc.type.coar.none.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2f33
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.type.content.none.fl_str_mv	Text
dc.type.redcol.none.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/LIB
format	http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2f33
status_str	acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv	https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/handle/ucordoba/9126
dc.identifier.instname.none.fl_str_mv	Universidad de Córdoba
dc.identifier.reponame.none.fl_str_mv	Repositorio Universidad de Córdoba
dc.identifier.repourl.none.fl_str_mv	https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/
dc.identifier.eisbn.none.fl_str_mv	978-958-5104-99-0
url	https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/handle/ucordoba/9126 https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/
identifier_str_mv	Universidad de Córdoba Repositorio Universidad de Córdoba 978-958-5104-99-0
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv	spa
language	spa
dc.relation.references.none.fl_str_mv	Acciarini, C., Brunetta, F., & Boccardelli, P. (2020). Cognitive biases and decision-making strategies in times of change: a systematic literature review. Management Decision, 59(3), 638– 652. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-07-2019-1006 Amara, R. (1974). The Futures Field: Functions, forms, and critical issues. Futures, 6(4), 289–301. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(74)90072-X Amara, R., & Lipinski, A. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future : scenarios and strategies (first ed.). Pergamon Pr. Araújo, W., & Casimiro, A. (2020). Prospective scenarios: Systematic review at lisa, emerald, scopus and web of science. Revista Digital Biblioteconomia e Ciência Da Informação, 18, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.20396/RDBCI.V18I0.8656945 Baena, G. (2010). Constructores del devenir: aportaciones para la historia de la prospectiva (No. 2; Papers de Prospectiva). Baena, G. (2020). El tenedor en el camino. Anticipación y planeación prospectivas en ciencia poloítica y administración pública (acerca de los usus de futuro) (1era ed.). Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Barbosa, C., Lima, Y., Emerick, M., Ferman, F., Ribeiro, F., & Moreira de Souza, J. (2023). Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future-oriented technology analysis. Futures & Foresight Science, 5(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.136 Becker, H. (1983). Scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 23, 95–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12957-5_12 Berger, G. (1957). Sciences Humaines et prévision. Revue Des Deux Mondes, 417–426. https://doi.org/10.3138/utq.84.3.490 Bezold, C. (2010). Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1513–1518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.012 Bishop, P. (2005). Managing Uncertainty and Influencing the Future. In Second Prague Workshop on Futures Studies Methodology. https://wiki.santafe.edu/images/a/a2/Framework_Prague.pdf Bishop, P., & Hines, A. (2012a). La prospectiva estratégica. In E. Bas & M. Guilló (Eds.), Prospectiva e innovación Vol. 1 visiones (1era ed., pp. 155–164). Plaza y Valdés ed. Bishop, P., & Hines, A. (2012b). Teaching about the Future (1st ed.). Palgrave Macmillan. Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516 Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003 Brauers, J., & Weber, M. (1988). A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning. Journal of Forecasting, 7(1), 31–47. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070104 Cabezas, R. (2008). El campo de los estudios de futuro: análisis de Foresight y prospectiva (1era ed.). Universidad Externado de Colombia. Carneiro, J., Loureiro, D., Cabral, M., & Covas, D. (2024). Integrating Uncertainty in Performance Assessment of Water Distribution Networks by Scenario Building. Water (Switzerland), 16(7), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16070977 Castro, J., & Acero, N. (2019). Lineamientos para la elaboración de estudios de vigilancia estratégica e inteligencia competitiva. In Editorial Neogranadina (Colección Futuribles, Documentos de Trabajo). https://revistas.unimilitar.edu.co/index.php/fwp/article/view/4193 Chalapud, E. (2022). Evolución de la prospectiva estratégica: un análisis bibliométrico. RHS Revista Humanismo y Sociedad, 10(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22209/rhs.v10n2a01 Chermack, T. (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures, 36, 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3 Chermack, T. (2005). Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003 Chermack, T. (2017a). Fundations of Scenario planning: the story of Pierre Wack (first ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315641232 Chermack, T. (2017b). Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Chermack, T. J. (2005). Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003 Chung, A. (2018). Teoría y práctica de la prospectiva (Primera ed). Alfaomega. Cordova, K., & Rouwette, E. (2023). Types of scenario planning and their effectiveness: A review of reviews. Futures, 149(March), 103153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103153 Crawford, M. (2019). A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 149, 119748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119748 David, F. (2008). Conceptos de administración estratégica (1era ed.). Pearson-Prentice Hall. de Kluyver, C. (1980). Bottom-up sales forecasting through scenario analysis. Industrial Marketing Management, 9(2), 167–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/0019-8501(80)90024-3 Derbyshire, J., & Wright, G. (2014). Preparing for the future: Development of an “antifragile” methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82(1), 215–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001 Di Zio, S., Bolzan, M., Marozzi, M., & Scioni, M. (2024). Delphi-based scenarios and risk management: A parallelism between paths destined to meet. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 92, 101832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832 Dias, M., Vianna, J., & Felby, C. (2016). Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, for 2030. Futures, 82, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.06.005 Dubin, R. (1969). Theory Building (first ed.). The free press. Dunn, A., & Fallah, S. (2024). The Future Is Scary!: A Job Search Scenario Planning Exercise to Encourage Student Resilience Capacity and Reduce Stress. Journal of Management Education, 48(2), 201–230. https://doi.org/10.1177/10525629231190841 Eisenhardt, K., & Zbaracki, M. (1992). Strategic Decision Making. Strategic Management Journa, 13, 17–37. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2486364 Erdogan, B., Abbott, C., Aouad, G., & Kazi, A. S. (2009). Construction it in 2030: A scenario planning approach. Electronic Journal of Information Technology in Construction, 14(August), 540–555. https://www.itcon.org/paper/2009/35 Evans, S. (2011). Connecting adaptation and strategy: The role of evolutionary theory in scenario planning. Futures, 43(4), 460–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.12.003 Farias, J. P. (2014). Método de ejes de Peter Schwartz para la identificación de escenarios posibles. In G. Gándara & F. Osorio (Eds.), Métodos prospectivos: Manual para el estudio y la construcción de futuro (Primera ed, pp. 217–237). Paidos M. R. Favato, G., & Vecchiato, R. (2017). Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 135–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.016 Feldblum, S. (1995). Forecasting the Future : Stochastic Simulation and Scenario Testing. In Incorporating risk factors in dynamic financial analysis (pp. 152–177). Fidler, D. (2011). Foresight defined as a component of Strategic Management. Futures, 43(5), 540– 544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.02.005 Forrester, J. (1992). Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling. European Journal of Operational Research, 59(1), 42–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90006-U Gallardo, W. (2021). Gestión estratégica, factor clave para el éxito organizacional. SUMMA. Revista Disciplinaria En Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, 3(2), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.47666/summa.3.2.40 Galtung, J. (1998). Essays in peace research. Christian Ejlers. García, R. (2006). Sistemas complejos: conceptos, método y fundamentación epistemológica de la investigación interdisciplinaria (1era ed.). gedisa editorial. Ghadiri, M., & Newell, R. (2024). Rethinking Public Transit Networks Using Climate Change Mitigation and Social Justice Lenses: Great Victoria Area Case Study. Sustainability (Switzerland), 16(6), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062414 Glenn, J. (2009). The Futures Wheel. In Futures Research Methodology--V3.0 (Ed. 3.0, pp. 1–19). The Millenium Project. http://www.millennium-project.org/wp- content/uploads/2020/02/06-Futures-Wheel.pdf Glenn, J., & Futures Group International. (2009). Scenarios. In Futures Research Methodology — Version 3.0 (third ed., pp. 399–433). The Millenium Project. Godet, M. (2003). La Prospectiva Estratégica. Gestión En El Tercer Milenio, 5(10), 61–75. Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenarios Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (Second Edi). Economica. http://es.laprospective.fr/Libros.html Godet, M. (2007). De la anticipacion a la acción manual de prospectiva y estrategia (1era ed.). Marcombo. Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). La prospectiva estratégica: para las empresas y los territorios (1era ed.). Dunod - UNESCO. Godet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2000). Caja de herramientas de prospectiva estratégica (Cuarta ed.). Gerpa con la colaboración de Electricité de France, Mission Prospective. https://bit.ly/3opHdQx Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(96)00004-0 Goyeneche, G., & Parodi, T. (2017). Introducción a la prospectiva, síntesis metodológica. In Dirección de Planificación OPP. https://www.opp.gub.uy/sites/default/files/documentos/2018-05/Manual_Prospectiva.pdf Grabtchak, A. (2020). Comparing Apples and Pears – Intuitive Logics and La Prospective. In M. Minkkinen, T. Ahlqvist, A. Kaboli, J. Kolehmainen, M. Mäki, M. Parkkinen, K. Siivonen, P. Tapio, & A. Arvonen (Eds.), Coolest Student Papers at Finland Futures Research Center 2019- 2020 (First ed., pp. 27–38). Finland Futures Research Centre - University of Turku. https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/150679 Gutman, V., Frank, F., Monjeau, A., Peri, P., Ryan, D., Volante, J., Apaza, L., & Scardamaglia, V. (2024). Stakeholder-based modelling in climate change planning for the agriculture sector in Argentina. Climate Policy, 24(4), 490–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2267024 Haldar, K., Kujawa, K., Dekkers, D., Datta, K., & Rijnaarts, H. (2024). Technological solutions for harnessing the urban water potential in the Bengal Delta–a scenario planning approach. Water International, 49(2), 164–184. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2024.2328470 Hawken, P., Schwartz, P., & Ogilvy, J. (1982). Seven Tomorrows: Toward a voluntary history (First ed.). Bantam Books. Hill, Ch., Jones, G., & Schilling, M. (2019). Administración estratégica: Teorías y Casos. Un enfoque integral (19 ed.) Edición CENGAGE Learning. Hines, A, & Bishop, P. (2015). Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (Second ed.). Smashwords Edition. Hines, Andy, & Bishop, P. (2013). Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way. Futures, 51, 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.05.002 Hussain, M., Tapinos, E., & Knight, L. (2017). Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 160–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.005 Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991 Inayatullah, S. (2009). Causal Layered Analysis: An integrative and transformative theory and method. In Futures Research Methodology. Jouvenel, B. (1964). L ́Art de la Conjeture (1St editio). Editions du Roche. Kahane, A. (1998). Destino Colombia: A scenario-planning process for the new millennium. Deeper News, 9(1), 32. Kahane, A. (2012). Transformative Scenario Planning: Working together to Change the Future (First ed.). Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc. Kahane, A. (2013). Transformative scenario planning: A Tool for Systemic Change. Social Space, 16–22. https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lien_research/116/ Kahane, A. (2016). La planificación transformadora por escenarios (1era ed.). Berret-Koehler Publishers. Kahn, H., & Wiener, A. (1967). The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the nex thirty-three years (Hudson Institute (ed.); first ed.). Macmillan. Kelly, R., Sirr, L., & Ratcliffe, J. (2004). Futures thinking to achieve sustainable development at local level in Ireland. Foresight, 6(2), 80–90. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680410537547 Kishita, Y., Mizuno, Y., Fukushige, S., & Umeda, Y. (2020). Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 160, 120207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120207 Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Scenario planning: the link between future and strategy (Second ed.). Palgrave Macmillan. Linneman, R., & Klein, H. (1979). The use of multiple scenarios by U.S. industrial companies. Long Range Planning, 12(1), 83–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(79)90034-7 Medina, J. (2020). Abriendo caminos en la prospectiva de América Latina y el Caribe (Primera ed). Editrorial USACH / programa editorial Universidad del Valle. Medina, J., & Cruz, P. (2022). Introducción a la planeación estratégica por escenarios: contexto, proceso metodológico y recomendaciones (1era ed.). Universidad del Valle. Medina, J., & Ortegón, E. (2006). Manual de prospectiva y decisión estratégica: bases teóricas e instrumentos para América Latina y el Caribe. In Insituto Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Planificación Económica y Social CEPAL (Primera ed). ILPES. https://bit.ly/3pWuJQD Meissner, P., & Wulf, T. (2013). Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 801–814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.011 Mera, C. (2014). Pensamiento prospectivo: visión sistémica de la construcción del futuro. Análisis. Revista Colombiana de Humanidades, 46(84), 89–104. https://doi.org/10.15332/s0120- 8454.2014.0084.05 Miller, B., Eaton, M., Symstad, A., Schuurman, G., Rangwala, I., & Travis, W. (2023). Scenario- Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change. Biological Conservation Journal, 286(December 2022), 1–11. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110275 Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39, 341–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001 Mojica, F. (2008). La construcción del futuro: concepto y modelos de prospectiva estratégica, territorial y tecnológica (Primera re). Universidad Externado de Colombia. Nematpour, M., Khodadadi, M., Makian, S., & Ghaffari, M. (2024). Developing a Competitive and Sustainable Model for the Future of a Destination: Iran’s Tourism Competitiveness. International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Administration, 25(1), 92–124. https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480.2022.2081279 Neumann, I., & Overland, E. (2004). International Relations and Policy Planning: The Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building. International Studies Perspectives, 5(3), 258–277. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44218326 Neumann, I., & Øverland, E. (2004). International relations and policy planning: The method of perspectivist scenario building. International Studies Perspectives, 5(3), 258–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3577.2004.00173.x Nowack, M., Endrikat, J., & Guenther, E. (2011). Review of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1603–1615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.006 Ogilvy, James. (2011). Facing the fold: Essays on scenario planning (First ed.). Triarchy Press. Ogilvy, Jay, & Schwartz, P. (1998). Plotting your Scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the future (first, Vol. 1, pp. 57–80). Wiley. https://bit.ly/3IOxPyu Poli, G., Cuntò, S., Muccio, E., & Cerreta, M. (2024). A spatial decision support system for multi- dimensional sustainability assessment of river basin districts: the case study of Sarno river, Italy. Land Use Policy, 141(November 2023), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107123 Porter, A. (2010). Technology foresight: Types and methods. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 6(1–3), 36–45. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2010.032664 Porter, A., Ashton, W., Clar, G., Coates, J. F., Cuhls, K., Cunningham, S., Ducatel, K., van der Duin, P., Georgehiou, L., Gordon, T., Linstone, H., Marchau, V., Massari, G., Miles, I., Mogee, M., Salo, A., Scapolo, F., Smits, R., & Thissen, W. (2004). Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(3), 287–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 Porter, M. (1980). Competitive strategy: techniques for analyzing industries and competitors (First ed.). Free Press. Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advatage: creating and sustaining superior performance. In Creating and Sustaining Competitive Advantage (First ed.). The free press. Prado, D., Martins, I., & Christofoletti, R. (2024). Participatory scenario planning as a useful method for transforming ocean conflicts: Insights from a small-scale fishing conflict in São Paulo coast, Brazil. Marine Policy, 160, 105922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105922 Quinteros, J., & Hamann, A. (2017). Planeamiento estratégico prospectivo: Métodos Mactor y Smic (Primera ed). Ecoe Ediciones Ltda. Ralph, C. (1977). Scenario development for corporate planning. Futures, 9(2), 128–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(77)90005-2 Ramírez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2020). El replantamiento estratégico: la metodología de planificación con escenarios de Oxford (1er ed.). Oxford Planning Scenario Approach. Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic property planning? Property Management, 18(2), 127–144. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637470010328322 Rawluk, A., Ford, R., & Williams, K. (2018). Value-based scenario planning: Exploring multifaceted values in natural disaster planning and management. Ecology and Society, 23(4), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10447-230402 Reynolds, J., Miller, B., Schuurman, G., Carr, W., Symstad, A., Gross, J., & Runyon, A. (2024). Accurately Characterizing Climate Change Scenario Planning in the U.S. National Park Service: Comment on Murphy et al. 2023. Society & Natural Resources, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2024.2310226 Rikkonen, P., Rimhanen, K., & Aro, K. (2024). Food system futures in Finland: How do experts evaluate changes in resilience up to 2030? Futures, 159(October 2023), 103364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103364 Rodríguez, T., Reu, B., Bolívar, S., Cortés, A., & Buendía, C. (2023). A framework for participatory scenario planning to guide transitions towards sustainability in mountain social-ecological systems: A case study from the Colombian Andes. Land Use Policy, 132(52), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106817 Romo, G. (2014). Gestión estratégica vs. Análisis estratégico. Una discusión conceptual a partir del estudio de caso de una institución de educación superior. Pensamiento & Gestión, 36, 267– 290. https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=64631418010 Roubelat, F. (2000). Scenario Planning as a Networking Process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 99–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00125-0 Scearce, D., & Fulton, K. (2004). What If? the Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Global Business Network. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/monitor-institute/us- monitor-institute-what_if.pdf Schoemaker, P. (1993). Multiple scenario planning: its conceptual and behavioral fundation. Strategic Management Journal, 14, 193–213. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250140304 Schoemaker, P. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. MITSloan Management Review, 2(36), 25–40. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/scenario-planning-a-tool-for- strategic-thinking/ Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your compañy (Third ed.). Doubleday. Schwartz, P. (2004). Inevitable surprises: Thinking ahead in a time of turbulence, the scenarios that are changing your world and your business (first ed.). Gotham Books. Schwartz, P., & Medina, J. (2011). La planificación estratégica por escenarios. Cuadernos de Administración, 14(21), 199–225. https://doi.org/10.25100/cdea.v14i21.114 Schwartz, P., & Ogilvy, J. (1998). Scenarios for global investment strategy for the new Century. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learnin From Future: competitive foresight Scenarios (pp. 175– 186). John Wiley & Sons. Shepherd, D., Williams, T., & Patzelt, H. (2015). Thinking About Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Review and Research Agenda. Journal of Management, 41(1), 11–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206314541153 Simon, H. (1993). Strategy and Organizational Evolution. Strategic Management Journal, 14, 131– 142. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2486501 Soler, Y. (2017). Teorías sobre los sistemas complejos. Administración & Desarrollo, 47(2), 52–69. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22431/25005227.201 Sondeijker, S., Geurts, J., Rotmans, J., & Tukker, A. (2006). Imagining sustainability: The added value of transition scenarios in transition management. Foresight, 8(5), 15–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680610703063 Spaniol, M., & Rowland, N. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures and Foresight Science, 1(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3 Stapleton, J. (2022). Planificación exploratoria de escenarios ( XSP ): Navegar un futuro incierto. Lincoln Institute de política de suelo. Sterman, J. (2002). Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. In ESD-WP-2003-01.13-ESD Internal Symposium (ESD-WP-2003-01.13; ESD Internal Symposium). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/44827001_Business_Dynamics_System_Thinkin g_and_Modeling_for_a_Complex_World Taleb, N. (2021). El cisne negro: el impacto de lo altamente improbable (Decimocuar). Ed. Planeta. Vallet, F., Puchinger, J., Millonig, A., Lamé, G., & Nicolaï, I. (2020). Tangible futures: Combining scenario thinking and personas - A pilot study on urban mobility. Futures, 117, 102513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102513 Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (2nd Ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Van Der Heijden, K. (2000). Scenarios and Forecasting: Two perspectives. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 31–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00121-3 Van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Writhe, G. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (first ed.). John Wiley & Sons Inc. Van Reedt Dortland, M., Voordijk, H., & Dewulf, G. (2014). Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning. Futures, 55, 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.12.004 Vanston, J., Frisbie, W., Lopreato, S., & Poston, D. (1977). Alternate scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 10(2), 159–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040- 1625(77)90043-9 Varum, C., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades. Futures, 42(4), 355–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021 Vergara, J., Fontalvo, T., & Maza, F. (2010). La planeación por escenarios: Revisión de conceptos y propuestas metodológicas. Prospectiva, 8(2), 21–29. Wack, P. (1985a). Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review, November-December. https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids Wack, P. (1985b). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review, Semptember- Octuber. https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead Waldrop, M. (2019). Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (Third ed.). Open road media. Wilson, I. (1998). Mental maps of the future: an intuitive logics approach to scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios (pp. 81–108). John Wiley & Sons. Wilson, I. (2000). From scenario thinking to strategic action. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 23–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00122-5 Wilson, I., George, W., & Solomon, P. (1978). Strategic planning for marketers. Business Horizons, 21, 65–73. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(78)90071-X Wright, G., Bradfield, R., & Cairns, G. (2013). Does the intuitive logics method - and its recent enhancements - produce “effective” scenarios? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 631–642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.003 Zugasti, I. (2022). Herramientas para la creación de escenarios futuros. In H. Casanueva (Ed.), Prospectiva del siglo XXI: entender las mega-tendencias y la nueva globalización para construir futuros desde la prospectiva estratégica (1er ed., pp. 263–302). Centro Latinoamericano de Globalización y Prospectiva. Chermack, T. (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures, 36, 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3 Chermack, T. (2005). Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003 Dubin, R. (1969). Theory Building (first ed.). The free press. Erdogan, B., Abbott, C., Aouad, G., & Kazi, A. S. (2009). Construction it in 2030: A scenario planning approach. Electronic Journal of Information Technology in Construction, 14(August), 540–555. https://www.itcon.org/paper/2009/35 Farias, J. P. (2014). Método de ejes de Peter Schwartz para la identificación de escenarios posibles. In G. Gándara & F. Osorio (Eds.), Métodos prospectivos: Manual para el estudio y la construcción de futuro (Primera ed, pp. 217–237). Paidos M. R. Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2009). La prospectiva estratégica para las empresas y los territorios (1era edici, Vol. 10). Laboratoire d’Innovation de Prospective Stratégique et d’Organisation. https://bit.ly/2WmtGON Godet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2000). Caja de herramientas de prospectiva estratégica (Cuarta ed.). Gerpa con la colaboración de Electricité de France, Mission Prospective. https://bit.ly/3opHdQx Hines, A., & Bishop, P. C. (2013). Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way. Futures, 51, 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.05.002 Kahane, A. (2016). La planificación transformadora por escenarios (1era ed.). Berret-Koehler Publishers. Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39, 341–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001 Neumann, I., & Øverland, E. (2004). International relations and policy planning: The method of perspectivist scenario building. International Studies Perspectives, 5(3), 258–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3577.2004.00173.x Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advatage: creating and sustaining superior performance. In Creating and Sustaining Competitive Advantage (First ed.). The free press. Scearce, D., & Fulton, K. (2004). What If? the Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Global Business Network. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/monitor-institute/us- monitor-institute-what_if.pdf Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your compañy (Third ed.). Doubleday. Stapleton, J. (2022). Planificación exploratoria de escenarios ( XSP ): Navegar un futuro incierto. Lincoln Institute de política de suelo. Wilson, I. (1998a). Mental maps of the future: an intuitive logics approach to scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios (pp. 81– 108). John Wiley & Sons. Wilson, I. (1998b). The Effective Implementation of Scenario Planning: Changing the Corporate Culture. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learnin From Future: competitive foresight Scenarios (pp. 352–368). John Wiley & Sons.
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv	Copyright Universidad de Córdoba, 2025
dc.rights.uri.none.fl_str_mv	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv	Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.accessrights.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.coar.none.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
rights_invalid_str_mv	Copyright Universidad de Córdoba, 2025 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv	openAccess
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv	application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv	Fondo Editorial - Universidad de Córdoba
dc.publisher.place.none.fl_str_mv	Montería, Córdoba, Colombia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv	Fondo Editorial - Universidad de Córdoba
institution	Universidad de Córdoba
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv	https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/7c2bac4a-5c0b-4ef9-9c51-b4aa681a6bc3/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/6dbbabbe-d5b0-42cf-ae73-01611f727a75/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/11158dff-a5af-46a9-ac60-3b8a28167b68/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/29251600-a5bc-4bec-af19-1f08de49a783/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/fb7c35d4-cb4f-4959-b310-830207e4abf9/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/9acb1e8a-7199-4500-b446-e56c13eab18f/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/fb096e12-f6e0-4cf6-9a46-b65fa7b61e55/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/9167c801-85d3-4865-9efe-4baab7928fb9/download https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/c817d26c-b9d9-45d0-893b-c513275c9b47/download
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv	755cfa133c1ef10174c365c5b1037999 849465d0e86b6ea91c6f9e10c3c372fb 73a5432e0b76442b22b026844140d683 eef8e031983cd7ceae9ef1bd1175fa36 86d9c239a324617311fc72f66440d916 86d9c239a324617311fc72f66440d916 9bb96c993cf4effbfdf43df9cd8b3a9d 31534d34827641ebaf144654aba77c97 31534d34827641ebaf144654aba77c97
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv	MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv	Repositorio Universidad de Córdoba
repository.mail.fl_str_mv	bdigital@metabiblioteca.com
_version_	1839636165968265216
spelling	Chalapud Narváez, Eduardo Davidcf211093-867c-43e6-b979-64335bef8343-1Parodi Camaño, Tobías Alfonso020563b3-3da0-44e6-9588-f4aeed4883a6-1Mercado Hoyos, Luis Enriquef64714ab-2c4d-4330-a378-3ec76eae7689-12025-04-08T21:02:08Z2025-04-08T21:02:08Z2025-04-08https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/handle/ucordoba/9126Universidad de CórdobaRepositorio Universidad de Córdobahttps://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/978-958-5104-99-0Scenario Planning, actualmente, es un recurso clave en la gestión de incertidumbre y toma de decisiones. Desde el principio, se ha mirado como una herramienta dinámica, que se adapta a diferentes corrientes de pensamiento, encontrando aplicación en varios campos de la investigación y contextos (Cordova & Rouwette, 2023). De acuerdo con Araújo & Casimiro (2020), los escenarios se presentan como una herramienta estratégica para proyectar a largo plazo la visión de una organización o sociedad, especialmente en un entorno caracterizado por una alta incertidumbre. Estos escenarios se conciben como un conjunto estructurado de formas de pensamiento que exploran diversos futuros alternativos, permitiendo así que las decisiones se articulen y desarrollen narrativas sobre el curso del mundo a largo plazo (Schwartz, 1996).PRÓLOGO ............................. 6AGRADECIMIENTOS..................7PRESENTACIÓN........................ 8INTRODUCCIÓN.......................... 9CAPÍTULO 1: CONTEXTO HISTÓRICO DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING ...... 12CAPÍTULO 2: FUNDAMENTOS TEÓRICOS DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING... 14Gestión estratégica .................. 14Teoría de los sistemas complejos .......................... 14Psicología cognitiva .................... 15Lógica intuitiva............................................ 16CAPÍTULO 3: METODOLOGÍAS Y EXPERTOS DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING...................... 17CAPÍTULO 4. MODELOS Y TÉCNICAS DE SCENARIO PLANNING .................. 31Modelo de planificación de escenarios de Shell..................... 31Modelo Global Business (GBN).................... 34Modelo de Scenario Planning mediante “Intuitive Logics” .............. 40Modelo de escenarios decisionales.................................... 42Modelo de escenarios de Peter Schwartz .................... 47Modelo teórico de construcción de escenarios........................ 51Modelo de escenarios industriales de Michael Porter......................... 53Modelo de escenarios perspectivistas ................................ 56Modelo de Scenario Planning para el análisis de los futuros tecnológicos............... 57Modelo de Scenario Planning y mapas mentales de futuro de Ian Wilson ......................... 59Modelo de Alfabetización de futuros de Riel Miller.......................... 63Modelo de planificación exploratoria de escenarios (XSP) .............................. 67CAPÍTULO 5: APLICACIONES DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING EN LA ACTUALIDAD ........... 72CONCLUSIÓN.................... 77BIBLIOGRAFÍA .................. 78Primera ediciónapplication/pdfspaFondo Editorial - Universidad de CórdobaMontería, Córdoba, ColombiaCopyright Universidad de Córdoba, 2025https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Planificación estratégicaEnfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicasLibroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/bookhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2f33info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionTexthttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/LIBAcciarini, C., Brunetta, F., & Boccardelli, P. (2020). Cognitive biases and decision-making strategies in times of change: a systematic literature review. Management Decision, 59(3), 638– 652. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-07-2019-1006Amara, R. (1974). The Futures Field: Functions, forms, and critical issues. Futures, 6(4), 289–301. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(74)90072-XAmara, R., & Lipinski, A. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future : scenarios and strategies (first ed.). Pergamon Pr.Araújo, W., & Casimiro, A. (2020). Prospective scenarios: Systematic review at lisa, emerald, scopus and web of science. Revista Digital Biblioteconomia e Ciência Da Informação, 18, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.20396/RDBCI.V18I0.8656945Baena, G. (2010). Constructores del devenir: aportaciones para la historia de la prospectiva (No. 2; Papers de Prospectiva).Baena, G. (2020). El tenedor en el camino. Anticipación y planeación prospectivas en ciencia poloítica y administración pública (acerca de los usus de futuro) (1era ed.). Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.Barbosa, C., Lima, Y., Emerick, M., Ferman, F., Ribeiro, F., & Moreira de Souza, J. (2023). Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future-oriented technology analysis. Futures & Foresight Science, 5(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.136Becker, H. (1983). Scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 23, 95–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12957-5_12Berger, G. (1957). Sciences Humaines et prévision. Revue Des Deux Mondes, 417–426. https://doi.org/10.3138/utq.84.3.490Bezold, C. (2010). Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1513–1518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.012Bishop, P. (2005). Managing Uncertainty and Influencing the Future. In Second Prague Workshop on Futures Studies Methodology. https://wiki.santafe.edu/images/a/a2/Framework_Prague.pdfBishop, P., & Hines, A. (2012a). La prospectiva estratégica. In E. Bas & M. Guilló (Eds.), Prospectiva e innovación Vol. 1 visiones (1era ed., pp. 155–164). Plaza y Valdés ed.Bishop, P., & Hines, A. (2012b). Teaching about the Future (1st ed.). Palgrave Macmillan.Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003Brauers, J., & Weber, M. (1988). A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning. Journal of Forecasting, 7(1), 31–47. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070104Cabezas, R. (2008). El campo de los estudios de futuro: análisis de Foresight y prospectiva (1era ed.). Universidad Externado de Colombia.Carneiro, J., Loureiro, D., Cabral, M., & Covas, D. (2024). Integrating Uncertainty in Performance Assessment of Water Distribution Networks by Scenario Building. Water (Switzerland), 16(7), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16070977Castro, J., & Acero, N. (2019). Lineamientos para la elaboración de estudios de vigilancia estratégica e inteligencia competitiva. In Editorial Neogranadina (Colección Futuribles, Documentos de Trabajo). https://revistas.unimilitar.edu.co/index.php/fwp/article/view/4193Chalapud, E. (2022). Evolución de la prospectiva estratégica: un análisis bibliométrico. RHS Revista Humanismo y Sociedad, 10(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22209/rhs.v10n2a01Chermack, T. (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures, 36, 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3Chermack, T. (2005). Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003Chermack, T. (2017a). Fundations of Scenario planning: the story of Pierre Wack (first ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315641232Chermack, T. (2017b). Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.Chermack, T. J. (2005). Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003Chung, A. (2018). Teoría y práctica de la prospectiva (Primera ed). Alfaomega.Cordova, K., & Rouwette, E. (2023). Types of scenario planning and their effectiveness: A review of reviews. Futures, 149(March), 103153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103153Crawford, M. (2019). A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 149, 119748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119748David, F. (2008). Conceptos de administración estratégica (1era ed.). Pearson-Prentice Hall.de Kluyver, C. (1980). Bottom-up sales forecasting through scenario analysis. Industrial Marketing Management, 9(2), 167–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/0019-8501(80)90024-3Derbyshire, J., & Wright, G. (2014). Preparing for the future: Development of an “antifragile” methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82(1), 215–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001Di Zio, S., Bolzan, M., Marozzi, M., & Scioni, M. (2024). Delphi-based scenarios and risk management: A parallelism between paths destined to meet. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 92, 101832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2024.101832Dias, M., Vianna, J., & Felby, C. (2016). Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, for 2030. Futures, 82, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.06.005Dubin, R. (1969). Theory Building (first ed.). The free press.Dunn, A., & Fallah, S. (2024). The Future Is Scary!: A Job Search Scenario Planning Exercise to Encourage Student Resilience Capacity and Reduce Stress. Journal of Management Education, 48(2), 201–230. https://doi.org/10.1177/10525629231190841Eisenhardt, K., & Zbaracki, M. (1992). Strategic Decision Making. Strategic Management Journa, 13, 17–37. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2486364Erdogan, B., Abbott, C., Aouad, G., & Kazi, A. S. (2009). Construction it in 2030: A scenario planning approach. Electronic Journal of Information Technology in Construction, 14(August), 540–555. https://www.itcon.org/paper/2009/35Evans, S. (2011). Connecting adaptation and strategy: The role of evolutionary theory in scenario planning. Futures, 43(4), 460–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.12.003Farias, J. P. (2014). Método de ejes de Peter Schwartz para la identificación de escenarios posibles. In G. Gándara & F. Osorio (Eds.), Métodos prospectivos: Manual para el estudio y la construcción de futuro (Primera ed, pp. 217–237). Paidos M. R.Favato, G., & Vecchiato, R. (2017). Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 135–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.016Feldblum, S. (1995). Forecasting the Future : Stochastic Simulation and Scenario Testing. In Incorporating risk factors in dynamic financial analysis (pp. 152–177).Fidler, D. (2011). Foresight defined as a component of Strategic Management. Futures, 43(5), 540– 544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.02.005Forrester, J. (1992). Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling. European Journal of Operational Research, 59(1), 42–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90006-UGallardo, W. (2021). Gestión estratégica, factor clave para el éxito organizacional. SUMMA. Revista Disciplinaria En Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, 3(2), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.47666/summa.3.2.40Galtung, J. (1998). Essays in peace research. Christian Ejlers.García, R. (2006). Sistemas complejos: conceptos, método y fundamentación epistemológica de la investigación interdisciplinaria (1era ed.). gedisa editorial.Ghadiri, M., & Newell, R. (2024). Rethinking Public Transit Networks Using Climate Change Mitigation and Social Justice Lenses: Great Victoria Area Case Study. Sustainability (Switzerland), 16(6), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062414Glenn, J. (2009). The Futures Wheel. In Futures Research Methodology--V3.0 (Ed. 3.0, pp. 1–19). The Millenium Project. http://www.millennium-project.org/wp- content/uploads/2020/02/06-Futures-Wheel.pdfGlenn, J., & Futures Group International. (2009). Scenarios. In Futures Research Methodology — Version 3.0 (third ed., pp. 399–433). The Millenium Project.Godet, M. (2003). La Prospectiva Estratégica. Gestión En El Tercer Milenio, 5(10), 61–75.Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenarios Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (Second Edi). Economica. http://es.laprospective.fr/Libros.htmlGodet, M. (2007). De la anticipacion a la acción manual de prospectiva y estrategia (1era ed.). Marcombo.Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). La prospectiva estratégica: para las empresas y los territorios (1era ed.). Dunod - UNESCO.Godet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2000). Caja de herramientas de prospectiva estratégica (Cuarta ed.). Gerpa con la colaboración de Electricité de France, Mission Prospective. https://bit.ly/3opHdQxGodet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(96)00004-0Goyeneche, G., & Parodi, T. (2017). Introducción a la prospectiva, síntesis metodológica. In Dirección de Planificación OPP. https://www.opp.gub.uy/sites/default/files/documentos/2018-05/Manual_Prospectiva.pdfGrabtchak, A. (2020). Comparing Apples and Pears – Intuitive Logics and La Prospective. In M. Minkkinen, T. Ahlqvist, A. Kaboli, J. Kolehmainen, M. Mäki, M. Parkkinen, K. Siivonen, P. Tapio, & A. Arvonen (Eds.), Coolest Student Papers at Finland Futures Research Center 2019- 2020 (First ed., pp. 27–38). Finland Futures Research Centre - University of Turku. https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/150679Gutman, V., Frank, F., Monjeau, A., Peri, P., Ryan, D., Volante, J., Apaza, L., & Scardamaglia, V. (2024). Stakeholder-based modelling in climate change planning for the agriculture sector in Argentina. Climate Policy, 24(4), 490–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2267024Haldar, K., Kujawa, K., Dekkers, D., Datta, K., & Rijnaarts, H. (2024). Technological solutions for harnessing the urban water potential in the Bengal Delta–a scenario planning approach. Water International, 49(2), 164–184. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2024.2328470Hawken, P., Schwartz, P., & Ogilvy, J. (1982). Seven Tomorrows: Toward a voluntary history (First ed.). Bantam Books.Hill, Ch., Jones, G., & Schilling, M. (2019). Administración estratégica: Teorías y Casos. Un enfoque integral (19 ed.) Edición CENGAGE Learning.Hines, A, & Bishop, P. (2015). Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (Second ed.). Smashwords Edition.Hines, Andy, & Bishop, P. (2013). Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way. Futures, 51, 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.05.002Hussain, M., Tapinos, E., & Knight, L. (2017). Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 160–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.005Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991Inayatullah, S. (2009). Causal Layered Analysis: An integrative and transformative theory and method. In Futures Research Methodology.Jouvenel, B. (1964). L ́Art de la Conjeture (1St editio). Editions du Roche.Kahane, A. (1998). Destino Colombia: A scenario-planning process for the new millennium. Deeper News, 9(1), 32.Kahane, A. (2012). Transformative Scenario Planning: Working together to Change the Future (First ed.). Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc.Kahane, A. (2013). Transformative scenario planning: A Tool for Systemic Change. Social Space, 16–22. https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lien_research/116/Kahane, A. (2016). La planificación transformadora por escenarios (1era ed.). Berret-Koehler Publishers.Kahn, H., & Wiener, A. (1967). The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the nex thirty-three years (Hudson Institute (ed.); first ed.). Macmillan.Kelly, R., Sirr, L., & Ratcliffe, J. (2004). Futures thinking to achieve sustainable development at local level in Ireland. Foresight, 6(2), 80–90. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680410537547Kishita, Y., Mizuno, Y., Fukushige, S., & Umeda, Y. (2020). Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 160, 120207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120207Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Scenario planning: the link between future and strategy (Second ed.). Palgrave Macmillan.Linneman, R., & Klein, H. (1979). The use of multiple scenarios by U.S. industrial companies. Long Range Planning, 12(1), 83–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(79)90034-7Medina, J. (2020). Abriendo caminos en la prospectiva de América Latina y el Caribe (Primera ed). Editrorial USACH / programa editorial Universidad del Valle.Medina, J., & Cruz, P. (2022). Introducción a la planeación estratégica por escenarios: contexto, proceso metodológico y recomendaciones (1era ed.). Universidad del Valle.Medina, J., & Ortegón, E. (2006). Manual de prospectiva y decisión estratégica: bases teóricas e instrumentos para América Latina y el Caribe. In Insituto Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Planificación Económica y Social CEPAL (Primera ed). ILPES. https://bit.ly/3pWuJQDMeissner, P., & Wulf, T. (2013). Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 801–814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.011Mera, C. (2014). Pensamiento prospectivo: visión sistémica de la construcción del futuro. Análisis. Revista Colombiana de Humanidades, 46(84), 89–104. https://doi.org/10.15332/s0120- 8454.2014.0084.05Miller, B., Eaton, M., Symstad, A., Schuurman, G., Rangwala, I., & Travis, W. (2023). Scenario- Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change. Biological Conservation Journal, 286(December 2022), 1–11. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110275Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39, 341–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001Mojica, F. (2008). La construcción del futuro: concepto y modelos de prospectiva estratégica, territorial y tecnológica (Primera re). Universidad Externado de Colombia.Nematpour, M., Khodadadi, M., Makian, S., & Ghaffari, M. (2024). Developing a Competitive and Sustainable Model for the Future of a Destination: Iran’s Tourism Competitiveness. International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Administration, 25(1), 92–124. https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480.2022.2081279Neumann, I., & Overland, E. (2004). International Relations and Policy Planning: The Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building. International Studies Perspectives, 5(3), 258–277. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44218326Neumann, I., & Øverland, E. (2004). International relations and policy planning: The method of perspectivist scenario building. International Studies Perspectives, 5(3), 258–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3577.2004.00173.xNowack, M., Endrikat, J., & Guenther, E. (2011). Review of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1603–1615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.006Ogilvy, James. (2011). Facing the fold: Essays on scenario planning (First ed.). Triarchy Press.Ogilvy, Jay, & Schwartz, P. (1998). Plotting your Scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the future (first, Vol. 1, pp. 57–80). Wiley. https://bit.ly/3IOxPyuPoli, G., Cuntò, S., Muccio, E., & Cerreta, M. (2024). A spatial decision support system for multi- dimensional sustainability assessment of river basin districts: the case study of Sarno river, Italy. Land Use Policy, 141(November 2023), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107123Porter, A. (2010). Technology foresight: Types and methods. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 6(1–3), 36–45. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2010.032664Porter, A., Ashton, W., Clar, G., Coates, J. F., Cuhls, K., Cunningham, S., Ducatel, K., van der Duin, P., Georgehiou, L., Gordon, T., Linstone, H., Marchau, V., Massari, G., Miles, I., Mogee, M., Salo, A., Scapolo, F., Smits, R., & Thissen, W. (2004). Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(3), 287–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004Porter, M. (1980). Competitive strategy: techniques for analyzing industries and competitors (First ed.). Free Press.Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advatage: creating and sustaining superior performance. In Creating and Sustaining Competitive Advantage (First ed.). The free press.Prado, D., Martins, I., & Christofoletti, R. (2024). Participatory scenario planning as a useful method for transforming ocean conflicts: Insights from a small-scale fishing conflict in São Paulo coast, Brazil. Marine Policy, 160, 105922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105922Quinteros, J., & Hamann, A. (2017). Planeamiento estratégico prospectivo: Métodos Mactor y Smic (Primera ed). Ecoe Ediciones Ltda.Ralph, C. (1977). Scenario development for corporate planning. Futures, 9(2), 128–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(77)90005-2Ramírez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2020). El replantamiento estratégico: la metodología de planificación con escenarios de Oxford (1er ed.). Oxford Planning Scenario Approach.Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic property planning? Property Management, 18(2), 127–144. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637470010328322Rawluk, A., Ford, R., & Williams, K. (2018). Value-based scenario planning: Exploring multifaceted values in natural disaster planning and management. Ecology and Society, 23(4), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10447-230402Reynolds, J., Miller, B., Schuurman, G., Carr, W., Symstad, A., Gross, J., & Runyon, A. (2024). Accurately Characterizing Climate Change Scenario Planning in the U.S. National Park Service: Comment on Murphy et al. 2023. Society & Natural Resources, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2024.2310226Rikkonen, P., Rimhanen, K., & Aro, K. (2024). Food system futures in Finland: How do experts evaluate changes in resilience up to 2030? Futures, 159(October 2023), 103364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103364Rodríguez, T., Reu, B., Bolívar, S., Cortés, A., & Buendía, C. (2023). A framework for participatory scenario planning to guide transitions towards sustainability in mountain social-ecological systems: A case study from the Colombian Andes. Land Use Policy, 132(52), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106817Romo, G. (2014). Gestión estratégica vs. Análisis estratégico. Una discusión conceptual a partir del estudio de caso de una institución de educación superior. Pensamiento & Gestión, 36, 267– 290. https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=64631418010Roubelat, F. (2000). Scenario Planning as a Networking Process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 99–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00125-0Scearce, D., & Fulton, K. (2004). What If? the Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Global Business Network. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/monitor-institute/us- monitor-institute-what_if.pdfSchoemaker, P. (1993). Multiple scenario planning: its conceptual and behavioral fundation. Strategic Management Journal, 14, 193–213. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250140304Schoemaker, P. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. MITSloan Management Review, 2(36), 25–40. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/scenario-planning-a-tool-for- strategic-thinking/Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your compañy (Third ed.). Doubleday.Schwartz, P. (2004). Inevitable surprises: Thinking ahead in a time of turbulence, the scenarios that are changing your world and your business (first ed.). Gotham Books.Schwartz, P., & Medina, J. (2011). La planificación estratégica por escenarios. Cuadernos de Administración, 14(21), 199–225. https://doi.org/10.25100/cdea.v14i21.114Schwartz, P., & Ogilvy, J. (1998). Scenarios for global investment strategy for the new Century. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learnin From Future: competitive foresight Scenarios (pp. 175– 186). John Wiley & Sons.Shepherd, D., Williams, T., & Patzelt, H. (2015). Thinking About Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Review and Research Agenda. Journal of Management, 41(1), 11–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206314541153Simon, H. (1993). Strategy and Organizational Evolution. Strategic Management Journal, 14, 131– 142. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2486501Soler, Y. (2017). Teorías sobre los sistemas complejos. Administración & Desarrollo, 47(2), 52–69. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22431/25005227.201Sondeijker, S., Geurts, J., Rotmans, J., & Tukker, A. (2006). Imagining sustainability: The added value of transition scenarios in transition management. Foresight, 8(5), 15–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680610703063Spaniol, M., & Rowland, N. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures and Foresight Science, 1(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3Stapleton, J. (2022). Planificación exploratoria de escenarios ( XSP ): Navegar un futuro incierto. Lincoln Institute de política de suelo.Sterman, J. (2002). Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. In ESD-WP-2003-01.13-ESD Internal Symposium (ESD-WP-2003-01.13; ESD Internal Symposium). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/44827001_Business_Dynamics_System_Thinkin g_and_Modeling_for_a_Complex_WorldTaleb, N. (2021). El cisne negro: el impacto de lo altamente improbable (Decimocuar). Ed. Planeta.Vallet, F., Puchinger, J., Millonig, A., Lamé, G., & Nicolaï, I. (2020). Tangible futures: Combining scenario thinking and personas - A pilot study on urban mobility. Futures, 117, 102513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102513Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (2nd Ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Van Der Heijden, K. (2000). Scenarios and Forecasting: Two perspectives. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 31–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00121-3Van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Writhe, G. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (first ed.). John Wiley & Sons Inc.Van Reedt Dortland, M., Voordijk, H., & Dewulf, G. (2014). Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning. Futures, 55, 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.12.004Vanston, J., Frisbie, W., Lopreato, S., & Poston, D. (1977). Alternate scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 10(2), 159–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040- 1625(77)90043-9Varum, C., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades. Futures, 42(4), 355–369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021Vergara, J., Fontalvo, T., & Maza, F. (2010). La planeación por escenarios: Revisión de conceptos y propuestas metodológicas. Prospectiva, 8(2), 21–29.Wack, P. (1985a). Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review, November-December. https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapidsWack, P. (1985b). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review, Semptember- Octuber. https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-aheadWaldrop, M. (2019). Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (Third ed.). Open road media.Wilson, I. (1998). Mental maps of the future: an intuitive logics approach to scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios (pp. 81–108). John Wiley & Sons.Wilson, I. (2000). From scenario thinking to strategic action. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 23–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00122-5Wilson, I., George, W., & Solomon, P. (1978). Strategic planning for marketers. Business Horizons, 21, 65–73. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(78)90071-XWright, G., Bradfield, R., & Cairns, G. (2013). Does the intuitive logics method - and its recent enhancements - produce “effective” scenarios? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 631–642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.003Zugasti, I. (2022). Herramientas para la creación de escenarios futuros. In H. Casanueva (Ed.), Prospectiva del siglo XXI: entender las mega-tendencias y la nueva globalización para construir futuros desde la prospectiva estratégica (1er ed., pp. 263–302). Centro Latinoamericano de Globalización y Prospectiva.Chermack, T. (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures, 36, 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(03)00156-3Chermack, T. (2005). Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.003Dubin, R. (1969). Theory Building (first ed.). The free press.Erdogan, B., Abbott, C., Aouad, G., & Kazi, A. S. (2009). Construction it in 2030: A scenario planning approach. Electronic Journal of Information Technology in Construction, 14(August), 540–555. https://www.itcon.org/paper/2009/35Farias, J. P. (2014). Método de ejes de Peter Schwartz para la identificación de escenarios posibles. In G. Gándara & F. Osorio (Eds.), Métodos prospectivos: Manual para el estudio y la construcción de futuro (Primera ed, pp. 217–237). Paidos M. R.Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2009). La prospectiva estratégica para las empresas y los territorios (1era edici, Vol. 10). Laboratoire d’Innovation de Prospective Stratégique et d’Organisation. https://bit.ly/2WmtGONGodet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2000). Caja de herramientas de prospectiva estratégica (Cuarta ed.). Gerpa con la colaboración de Electricité de France, Mission Prospective. https://bit.ly/3opHdQxHines, A., & Bishop, P. C. (2013). Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way. Futures, 51, 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.05.002Kahane, A. (2016). La planificación transformadora por escenarios (1era ed.). Berret-Koehler Publishers.Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39, 341–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001Neumann, I., & Øverland, E. (2004). International relations and policy planning: The method of perspectivist scenario building. International Studies Perspectives, 5(3), 258–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3577.2004.00173.xPorter, M. (1985). Competitive Advatage: creating and sustaining superior performance. In Creating and Sustaining Competitive Advantage (First ed.). The free press.Scearce, D., & Fulton, K. (2004). What If? the Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Global Business Network. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/monitor-institute/us- monitor-institute-what_if.pdfSchwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your compañy (Third ed.). Doubleday.Stapleton, J. (2022). Planificación exploratoria de escenarios ( XSP ): Navegar un futuro incierto. Lincoln Institute de política de suelo.Wilson, I. (1998a). Mental maps of the future: an intuitive logics approach to scenarios. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios (pp. 81– 108). John Wiley & Sons.Wilson, I. (1998b). The Effective Implementation of Scenario Planning: Changing the Corporate Culture. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learnin From Future: competitive foresight Scenarios (pp. 352–368). John Wiley & Sons.PublicationORIGINALEnfoque Scenario Planning - actualizado.pdfapplication/pdf2835374https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/7c2bac4a-5c0b-4ef9-9c51-b4aa681a6bc3/download755cfa133c1ef10174c365c5b1037999MD511AutorizaciónPublicación (2).pdfapplication/pdf321528https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/6dbbabbe-d5b0-42cf-ae73-01611f727a75/download849465d0e86b6ea91c6f9e10c3c372fbMD514LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-815543https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/11158dff-a5af-46a9-ac60-3b8a28167b68/download73a5432e0b76442b22b026844140d683MD53TEXTEnfoque Scenario Planning - actualizado.pdf.txtEnfoque Scenario Planning - actualizado.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain101578https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/29251600-a5bc-4bec-af19-1f08de49a783/downloadeef8e031983cd7ceae9ef1bd1175fa36MD512AutorizaciónPublicación.pdf.txtAutorizaciónPublicación.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain4756https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/fb7c35d4-cb4f-4959-b310-830207e4abf9/download86d9c239a324617311fc72f66440d916MD57AutorizaciónPublicación (2).pdf.txtAutorizaciónPublicación (2).pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain4756https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/9acb1e8a-7199-4500-b446-e56c13eab18f/download86d9c239a324617311fc72f66440d916MD515THUMBNAILEnfoque Scenario Planning - actualizado.pdf.jpgEnfoque Scenario Planning - actualizado.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg16486https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/fb096e12-f6e0-4cf6-9a46-b65fa7b61e55/download9bb96c993cf4effbfdf43df9cd8b3a9dMD513AutorizaciónPublicación.pdf.jpgAutorizaciónPublicación.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg13862https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/9167c801-85d3-4865-9efe-4baab7928fb9/download31534d34827641ebaf144654aba77c97MD58AutorizaciónPublicación (2).pdf.jpgAutorizaciónPublicación (2).pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg13862https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/bitstreams/c817d26c-b9d9-45d0-893b-c513275c9b47/download31534d34827641ebaf144654aba77c97MD516ucordoba/9126oai:repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co:ucordoba/91262025-06-17 03:01:04.661https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Copyright Universidad de Córdoba, 2025open.accesshttps://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.coRepositorio Universidad de Córdobabdigital@metabiblioteca.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

Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas

Publicaciones similares