Dengue risk-mapping in an Amazonian locality in Colombia based on regression and multi-criteria analysis
The potential of dengue infection is of prime public health concern in tropical and subtropical countries. In Colombia, the management of this disease is based mainly on epidemiological monitoring and vector control. This study, covering the period 2015-2022, adds to this approach by investigating a...
- Autores:
-
Lesmes, Maria Camila
Avila Diaz, Alvaro Javier
Morales Reichmann, Carlos Andres
Cadena Peña, Horacio
Fuya, Patricia
Frutos, Nicolas
Porcasi, Ximena
Marcelo, Catalina
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of investigation
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2025
- Institución:
- Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales U.D.C.A
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio Institucional UDCA
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.udca.edu.co:11158/6574
- Acceso en línea:
- https://repository.udca.edu.co/handle/11158/6574
https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2025.1292
https://repository.udca.edu.co/
- Palabra clave:
- 610 - Medicina y salud::616 - Enfermedades
Dengue
Factores de Riesgo
Estaciones del Año
Regresión Espacial
Incidencia
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/legalcode.es
| Summary: | The potential of dengue infection is of prime public health concern in tropical and subtropical countries. In Colombia, the management of this disease is based mainly on epidemiological monitoring and vector control. This study, covering the period 2015-2022, adds to this approach by investigating a tool that identifies dengue risk zones considering its environmental and sociodemographic determinants. For this purpose, an analytical, comparative, ecological study was carried out in three stages: i) selection of indicators associated with the occurrence of dengue through hierarchical analysis; ii) execution of a spatial-based Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression technique; and iii) multi-criteria analysis of the risk data obtained. Consequently, two optimal models, one for the rainy season (R2=0.5761; AIC=366.3929) and the other for the dry season (R2=0.8560; AIC=440.7557) were obtained for the Dengue Incidence Rate (DIR) during the study period mainly based on socio-demographic and environmental variables. A dengue risk map was generated, showing the impact on three neighbourhoods in the municipality of Piamonte in the Cauca Department covering both seasons. In conclusion, the dengue risk map made it possible to identify highrisk areas and also to identify the determinants of disease occurrence, which can contribute to improving disease management in tropical and subtropical regions. |
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