Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia
1 recurso en línea (páginas 65-86).
- Autores:
- Tipo de recurso:
- article
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2019
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- Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
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- RiUPTC: Repositorio Institucional UPTC
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- Acceso en línea:
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- Palabra clave:
- Política monetaria
Análisis de varianza
Modelos econométricos
Economía financiera
Mercado financiero
Banco central
Expectativas de inflación
Modelización econométrica
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- openAccess
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- Copyright (c) 2019 Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
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Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia Effects of Monetary Policy Announcements and Credibility on Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Colombia Efeitos dos anúncios de política monetária e credibilidade sobre as expectativas de inflação: evidência para a Colômbia |
| title |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia |
| spellingShingle |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo Política monetaria Análisis de varianza Modelos econométricos Economía financiera Mercado financiero Banco central Expectativas de inflación Modelización econométrica |
| title_short |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia |
| title_full |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia |
| title_fullStr |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia |
| title_sort |
Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata, Juan Camilo |
| author |
Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo |
| author_facet |
Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata, Juan Camilo |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Anzoátegui-Zapata, Juan Camilo |
| author2_role |
author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Política monetaria Análisis de varianza Modelos econométricos Economía financiera Mercado financiero Banco central Expectativas de inflación Modelización econométrica |
| topic |
Política monetaria Análisis de varianza Modelos econométricos Economía financiera Mercado financiero Banco central Expectativas de inflación Modelización econométrica |
| description |
1 recurso en línea (páginas 65-86). |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-10T16:27:05Z 2019-05-10T16:27:05Z 2019-02-07 |
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Artículo de revista http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Text https://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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Galvis Ciro, J. C. & Anzoátegui Zapata, J. C. (2019). Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia. Apuntes del CENES, 38(67), 65-86. DOI: https://doi. org/10.19053/01203053.v38.n67.2019.7912. http://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/2575 0120-3053 Electrónico 2256-5779 http://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/2575 10.19053/01203053.v38.n67.2019.7912 |
| identifier_str_mv |
Galvis Ciro, J. C. & Anzoátegui Zapata, J. C. (2019). Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia. Apuntes del CENES, 38(67), 65-86. DOI: https://doi. org/10.19053/01203053.v38.n67.2019.7912. http://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/2575 0120-3053 Electrónico 2256-5779 10.19053/01203053.v38.n67.2019.7912 |
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http://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/2575 |
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spa |
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Bernanke, B., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F. & Posen, A. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Blinder, A., Ehrmann, M., Fratzcher, M., De Haan, J. & Jansen, D. (2008). Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910-945. Born, B., Ehrmann, M. & Fratzscher, M. (2014). Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability. The Economic Journal, 124(577), 701-734. Ciro, J.C. & De Mendonça, H.F. (2017). Effect of Credibility and Reputation on Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Empirical Evidence from Colombia. Empirical Economics, 53(4), 1529-1552. Clark, T. & Nakata, T. (2008). Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed? Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 93(1), 17-49. De Mendonça, H. F. (2007). Towards Credibility from Inflation Targeting: The Brazilian Experience. Applied Economics, 39(20), 2599–2615. De Pooter, M., Robitaille, P., Walker, I. & Zdinak, M. (2014). Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico? International Journal of Central Banking, 10(2), 337-400. Ehrmann, M. & Fratzscher, M. (2007). Communication and Decision-Making by Central Bank Committees. Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(3), 509-541. Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. Gürkaynak, R. & Swanson, E. (2011). Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(1), 350-364. Égert, B. (2009). The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa. Open Economies Review, 21(5), 655-677. Eijffinger, S. & Geraats, P. (2006). How Transparent Are Central Banks? European Journal of Political Economy, 22(1), 1-21. Engle, R. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1008. Galati, G. Poelhekke, S. & Zhou, C. (2011). Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations? International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 167-207. Gürkaynak, R., Levin, A. & Swanson, E. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden. Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(6), 1208-1242. Jansen, D. J. (2011). Does the Clarity of Central Bank Communication Affect Volatility in Financial Markets? Evidence from Humphrey-Hawkins Testimonies. Contemporary Economic Policy, 29(4), 494–509. Jansen, D. & De Haan, D. (2007). The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations? CESifo Working Paper Series No. 2134 (pp.1-29). Munich. Johnson, D. (2003). The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1076-81. Kennedy, M. & Palerm, A. (2014). Emerging Market Bond Spreads: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors from 2002 to 2011. Journal of International Money and Finance, 43(1), 70–87. Kliesen, K. & Schmid, F. (2004). Monetary Policy Actions, Macroeconomic Data Releases, and Inflation Expectations. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 86(3), 9–21. Kuttner, K. (2001). Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the FED FUNDS Futures Market. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(3), 523–544. Levieuge, G., Lucotte, Y. & Ringuedé. S. (2015). Central Bank Credibility and the Expectations Channel: Evidence Based on a New Credibility Index. National Bank of Poland Working Papers 209 (pp. 1–45). Warsaw. Levin, A., Natalucci, F. & Piger, J. (2004). The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 86(4), 51-80. López E., Montes, E., Garavito, A. & Collazos, M. (2013). La economía petrolera en Colombia. Relaciones intersectoriales e importancia en la economía nacional. Borradores de Economía, (566), 1-56. Mankiw, N., Reis, R. & Wolfers, J. (2003). Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 18, 209-268. Moessner, R. (2015). Reactions of Real Yields and Inflation Expectations to Forward Guidance in the United States. Applied Economics, 47(26), 2671-2682. Montes, G. (2013). Credibility and Monetary Transmission Channels under Inflation Targeting: An Econometric Analysis from a Developing Country. Economic Modelling, 30, 670–684. Montes, G., Oliveira, L., Curi, A. & Nicolay, R. (2016). Effects of Transparency, Monetary Policy Signalling and Clarity of Central Bank Communication on Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. Applied Economics, 48(7), 1-18. Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 349-380. Rincón, H. & Rodríguez, N. (2016). Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach. Borradores de Economía, (930), 1-75. Vargas, H., González, A., González, E., Romero, J. & Rojas, L. (2010, August). Assessing Inflationary Pressures in Colombia. BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, No. 49 (pp.129-171). Basel. Woodford, M. (2005). Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness. NBER Working Paper N.° 11898, (pp. 1-67). Cambridge. Apuntes del CENES;Volumen 38, número 67 (Enero-Junio 2019) |
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Copyright (c) 2019 Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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Copyright (c) 2019 Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para ColombiaEffects of Monetary Policy Announcements and Credibility on Inflation Expectations: Evidence for ColombiaEfeitos dos anúncios de política monetária e credibilidade sobre as expectativas de inflação: evidência para a ColômbiaGalvis Ciro, Juan CamiloAnzoátegui-Zapata, Juan CamiloPolítica monetariaAnálisis de varianzaModelos econométricosEconomía financieraMercado financieroBanco centralExpectativas de inflaciónModelización econométrica1 recurso en línea (páginas 65-86).Este documento analiza los efectos de los anuncios del banco central sobre las expectativas de inflación para la economía colombiana. En particular, son estudiados los impactos de los pronunciamientos sobre la tasa de interés y los choques macroeconómicos sobre las tasas de inflación compensadas, dado el escenario de credibilidad de la política monetaria. La evidencia empírica es abordada por medio de un análisis de regresión con un modelo EGARCH para el período 2008-2016. Los resultados muestran que las expectativas de inflación responden a los anuncios de política. Además, los pronunciamientos fueron más efectivos en anclar las expectativas durante el período 2012-2016 y la mayor credibilidad de la política permitió que las expectativas fueran más estables frente a los choques externos.This paper refers to the literature on the effects of central bank announcements on inflation expectations in developing countries. In particular, based on the Colombian experience, we study the impact of interest rate announcements and macroeconomic shocks on breakeven inflation rates, given the monetary policy credibility scenario. The empirical evidence is implemented by regression analysis using an EGARCH model between 2008-2016. We find that inflation expectations respond to policy statements in Colombia. Our results show that the central bank pronouncements were more effective in anchoring expectations in the period 2012-2016 and the greater monetary policy credibility allows inflation expectations to be more stable before external shocks.Este trabalho analisa os efeitos dos anúncios do banco central sobre as expectativas de inflação para a economia colombiana. Em particular, são avaliados os efeitos dos anúncios da taxa de juros e choques macroeconômicos sobre as taxas de inflação compensadas em diferentes cenários de credibilidade da política monetária. A evidência empírica é abordada por meio de analises de regressão com um modelo EGARCH para o período 2008-2016. Os resultados mostram que as expectativas de inflação reagem aos anúncios de política. Além disso, os anúncios do banco central foram mais eficaz para ancorar as expectativas durante o período 2012-2016 e sua maior credibilidade na política monetária permitiu que as expectativas foram mais estáveis frente a choques externos.Bibliografía y webgrafía: páginas 82-84.Código de Clasificación de Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) : C5, C51, E52, E58, E61.Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia2019-05-10T16:27:05Z2019-05-10T16:27:05Z2019-02-07Artículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionTexthttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARThttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85application/pdfapplication/pdfGalvis Ciro, J. C. & Anzoátegui Zapata, J. C. (2019). Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia. Apuntes del CENES, 38(67), 65-86. DOI: https://doi. org/10.19053/01203053.v38.n67.2019.7912. http://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/25750120-3053Electrónico 2256-5779http://repositorio.uptc.edu.co/handle/001/257510.19053/01203053.v38.n67.2019.7912https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/7912/7612reponame:RiUPTC: Repositorio Institucional UPTCinstname:Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombiainstacron:Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de ColombiaspaBernanke, B., Laubach, T., Mishkin, F. & Posen, A. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Blinder, A., Ehrmann, M., Fratzcher, M., De Haan, J. & Jansen, D. (2008). Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910-945.Born, B., Ehrmann, M. & Fratzscher, M. (2014). Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability. The Economic Journal, 124(577), 701-734.Ciro, J.C. & De Mendonça, H.F. (2017). Effect of Credibility and Reputation on Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Empirical Evidence from Colombia. Empirical Economics, 53(4), 1529-1552.Clark, T. & Nakata, T. (2008). Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed? Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 93(1), 17-49.De Mendonça, H. F. (2007). Towards Credibility from Inflation Targeting: The Brazilian Experience. Applied Economics, 39(20), 2599–2615.De Pooter, M., Robitaille, P., Walker, I. & Zdinak, M. (2014). Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico? International Journal of Central Banking, 10(2), 337-400.Ehrmann, M. & Fratzscher, M. (2007). Communication and Decision-Making by Central Bank Committees. Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(3), 509-541.Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. Gürkaynak, R. & Swanson, E. (2011). Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(1), 350-364.Égert, B. (2009). The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa. Open Economies Review, 21(5), 655-677.Eijffinger, S. & Geraats, P. (2006). How Transparent Are Central Banks? European Journal of Political Economy, 22(1), 1-21.Engle, R. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1008.Galati, G. Poelhekke, S. & Zhou, C. (2011). Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations? International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 167-207.Gürkaynak, R., Levin, A. & Swanson, E. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden. Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(6), 1208-1242.Jansen, D. J. (2011). Does the Clarity of Central Bank Communication Affect Volatility in Financial Markets? Evidence from Humphrey-Hawkins Testimonies. Contemporary Economic Policy, 29(4), 494–509.Jansen, D. & De Haan, D. (2007). The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations? CESifo Working Paper Series No. 2134 (pp.1-29). Munich.Johnson, D. (2003). The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1076-81.Kennedy, M. & Palerm, A. (2014). Emerging Market Bond Spreads: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors from 2002 to 2011. Journal of International Money and Finance, 43(1), 70–87.Kliesen, K. & Schmid, F. (2004). Monetary Policy Actions, Macroeconomic Data Releases, and Inflation Expectations. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 86(3), 9–21.Kuttner, K. (2001). Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the FED FUNDS Futures Market. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(3), 523–544.Levieuge, G., Lucotte, Y. & Ringuedé. S. (2015). Central Bank Credibility and the Expectations Channel: Evidence Based on a New Credibility Index. National Bank of Poland Working Papers 209 (pp. 1–45). Warsaw.Levin, A., Natalucci, F. & Piger, J. (2004). The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 86(4), 51-80.López E., Montes, E., Garavito, A. & Collazos, M. (2013). La economía petrolera en Colombia. Relaciones intersectoriales e importancia en la economía nacional. Borradores de Economía, (566), 1-56.Mankiw, N., Reis, R. & Wolfers, J. (2003). Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 18, 209-268.Moessner, R. (2015). Reactions of Real Yields and Inflation Expectations to Forward Guidance in the United States. Applied Economics, 47(26), 2671-2682.Montes, G. (2013). Credibility and Monetary Transmission Channels under Inflation Targeting: An Econometric Analysis from a Developing Country. Economic Modelling, 30, 670–684.Montes, G., Oliveira, L., Curi, A. & Nicolay, R. (2016). Effects of Transparency, Monetary Policy Signalling and Clarity of Central Bank Communication on Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. Applied Economics, 48(7), 1-18.Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 349-380.Rincón, H. & Rodríguez, N. (2016). Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach. Borradores de Economía, (930), 1-75.Vargas, H., González, A., González, E., Romero, J. & Rojas, L. (2010, August). Assessing Inflationary Pressures in Colombia. BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, No. 49 (pp.129-171). Basel.Woodford, M. (2005). Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness. NBER Working Paper N.° 11898, (pp. 1-67). Cambridge.Apuntes del CENES;Volumen 38, número 67 (Enero-Junio 2019)Copyright (c) 2019 Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombiahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf22024-11-26T14:46:42Z |