EPH159 Burden of ischemic heart disease in Colombia: a simulation from a live-birth cohort

Objective: To estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Colombia through a mathematical model. Methods: An age-dependent Markov model simulated the natural history of IHD in a fixed cohort of live-births in 2015 up to 100 years old, assuming permanence of the risk factors over time. We considered the lifetime incidence of a typical individual with IHD. Health states (healthy, IHD, and death) were discrete, exhaustive, and mutually exclusive. We modeled a live-birth cohort (320,964 girls and 339,309 boys) free of IHD at the beginning of the simulation, and each year (cycles) the individuals had a transition probability to progress from one state to another. Only main outcomes were evaluated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted. Deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability (including severe myocardium infarct and stroke disability weights), and DALYs were estimated. Results: Men with IHD had a higher burden of disease than women. DALYs for both sexes were 3,781,395 (rate of 80.39 per thousand). DALYs were higher in 45-80 years comparing to the rest of age groups. From 85+ the burden decreased. Over the 100 years modeled, at the end of the period, 32.5% of the men and 28.1% of the women who started in the fixed cohort would die from IHD. In men, the 65-69 age group accounted for the highest proportion of total deaths, with 12.3%; in women, 60-64 age group totalized 15.3% of the total mortality burden. The inputs that most influenced the burden of IHD were the weights of disability of acute myocardial stroke and its duration. Conclusion: This study is an important input for the evaluation of strategies that reduce the epidemiological impact of IHD. Our Markov model would be adapted to evaluate health technologies that potentially treat IHD to reduce the estimated burden of disease.

• Autores: Castañeda-Orjuela, C; Diaz-Jimenez, D; Carrasquilla Sotomayor, M; Perez-Molina, C; Chaparro-Narvaez, P; Alvis Zakzuk, Nelson J.
• Tipo de recurso: Article of investigation
• Fecha de publicación: 2022
• Institución: Corporación Universidad de la Costa
• Repositorio: REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.cuc.edu.co:11323/10724
• Acceso en línea: https://hdl.handle.net/11323/10724; https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/
• Palabra clave: Ischemic heart; Live-birth; Colombia
• Rights: embargoedAccess
• License: Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)